The Iraqization of Lebanon.

A few years ago, when a country collapsed it used to be compared to
Lebanon. In fact, there was even a debate as to whether the proper term was "lebanization" or "lebanonization".

Since then, Iraq has taken the lead in defining dysfunctional countries: latent violence, random bombings, acute economic and social crises, and of course different factions trying to advance the agendas of their foreign masters. The trick is stopping just short of all-out war and total collapse.

Palestine is going the way of Iraq, and Lebanon is not far behind. Below is Abu Ali's take on today's events in Beirut.




"Tell me about strange days. I just want to hide somewhere until the storm has passed. But short of playing Methusalem, I have to follow the news and try to make sense of it. One of the most astute political analysts today is in my opinion Jean Aziz. He use to be in the LF and then became a Awni, but he always has an interesting twist on things, an unconventional reading. This is an analysis in yesterday’s newspaper: http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/72637 It is interesting because it replaces the conflict where it should be, in its regional dimension. There are many other complementary reading around, and they are all in the more or less general line of thought.



But more locally, I’m worried about the repercussions. Somehow, I do not think there will be an open conflict, but we are slipping into a deeper, institutionalized division of the country and of government on the basis of geographic locations. And I think there will be an increase number of violent incidents, and there will be human losses with each event and this is terrible. I do not think the US will intervene openly and directly, but the fact that there has been $100 millions approved by the Bush government for covert operations in Lebanon and Syria and Iraq and Iran does not bode well. It looks to me like the US wants to engage more in Lebanon, as other regional players are already engaged. Whether it will do that directly or via third party is unclear, but I am almost sure that the Israelis will not be part of this engagement. They have too much on their hands right now.



I do not know how this issue of communication network and the security of the airport (you must have been following) will be resolved. But this is really the first open position of the Saniora government against the resistance (and HA). The bottom line is always going to be the following: as long as the physical safety of the resistance (HA) people cannot be ensured, it is not going to be possible to construct a government or a country. This is worsened by the fact that the security of HA is perceived as being synonymous to the safety of all the Shi’a of Lebanon. In my opinion, and regardless of the drumming and bravado of HA, we are not talking about the protection of the resistance any more, but about the protection of the resistants. But this does not fit with the regional plans of both big regional players.



Even more down to earth, the airport road is closed and there is an armed battle going on between Future and Amal in Ras el Nabeh as we speak. A foreign reporter just called to get info about food prices and she told me she was hearing explosions and gunshots in her street. She lives near Sodeco.



Not much else for the day."

I Want The Future Now.

As long as it is sectarian, Lebanon cannot become a modern state. The
problem is that without being sectarian, Lebanon will no longer exist.



Robert Fisk.






Lebanon may be the world’s most paradoxical entity. It is still sectarian, but it no longer exists: go figure. Although most of us are still in stubborn denial, the country died a painful death many years ago. Yet the time has come to face reality: all we have left is tabboule and Fayrouz. The former is now often referred to as “Israeli salad”, and the latter is not immortal. Pretty soon, we will have nothing to call our own.



While all of our politicians keep babbling about the future, the problem is that there is no such thing as “The Future" out there. Rather, there are many possible “Futures” and it is up to each of us to work toward the one that we envision. Below are the players that are actively working to impose their own vision of our future:



The March 14 Future: It consists in resurrecting the Lebanon of 1943, because it perfectly suits the sectarian agenda of its leaders. The reasoning is that since it was the original formula, we should stick with it. Think of it as “the Coca Cola rule”. The main problem is that the concept never worked -- except for the aforementioned leaders and their immediate families -- and it never will. Tawazon is dead and buried. Uniting the Maronites so they can agree with the Sunnis on a new National Pact and save what is left of the country is a waste of perfectly good time.



The Federal Future: While the mainstream Cedar Revolution is desperately trying to go back in time to 1943, a smaller part of the movement is wondering why they should stop there. They are advocating instead going back to 1860. This will make it much easier for our sectarian leaders to control us once and for all.



The March 08 Future: This particular Future consists in rejecting the March 14 Future and in offering instead dignity, resistance and other similar and just as vague concepts. Very soon, when our social and economic problems become unmanageable and people clamor for bread, we will feed them dignity (recommended with olive oil).



The Aoun Future: The ultimate non-starter. The whole movement is dependent on one individual: Michel Aoun. Like Fayrouz, he is not immortal, but let’s please not tell him that, as it might come as a shock. When he dies, his top lieutenants will divide all available party funds and the movement will disappear. We will be left with is a handful of newly minted high-flying millionaires.



The American Future: Support for any type of government willing to sign a peace agreement with Israel, a.k.a the “light unto nations”.



The Israeli Future: Please refer to both the Federal and the American Futures above.



The Saudi Future: A playground for their 7,000 princes and their 7,000 terrorists.



The Syrian Future: Pretend that historically our two counties were one and milk Lebanon to the bitter end.



What is missing in what is left of Lebanon is the Modern Future. The kind of future where instead of having a bunch of gangsters defending Sectarian Rights, we have a solid state protecting the Individual Rights of each and every individual living within our 10,452 km2. And yes, this will not only include Lebanese citizens, but also Palestinians, Syrians, Philippinos, Ethiopians…



A Future with a state that will have serious economic, social and environmental programs. A Future with a strict separation of Church/Mosque and State. A Future where 90% of the population is not treated like pariahs. A Future where talk is not cheap and politicians are held accountable for their actions. A Future where the rule of law is not just a buzz word used selectively, as in: “we need to know who killed my father because it is the law, but in the meantime I will not pay my taxes, I will arm my own militia, I will bankroll thugs, I will take over state assets…”.



It will be a very tall order to achieve a Modern Future for Lebanon, but every journey starts with a first step. What is needed is a cause that is sure to infuriate all the traditional vested interests that are keeping us anchored in our failed past, a cause that would act as a catalyst for change and unite those of us working for a better future. Civil Marriage is the perfect candidate.



Mustapha Mond.