The Iraqization of Lebanon.

A few years ago, when a country collapsed it used to be compared to
Lebanon. In fact, there was even a debate as to whether the proper term was "lebanization" or "lebanonization".

Since then, Iraq has taken the lead in defining dysfunctional countries: latent violence, random bombings, acute economic and social crises, and of course different factions trying to advance the agendas of their foreign masters. The trick is stopping just short of all-out war and total collapse.

Palestine is going the way of Iraq, and Lebanon is not far behind. Below is Abu Ali's take on today's events in Beirut.




"Tell me about strange days. I just want to hide somewhere until the storm has passed. But short of playing Methusalem, I have to follow the news and try to make sense of it. One of the most astute political analysts today is in my opinion Jean Aziz. He use to be in the LF and then became a Awni, but he always has an interesting twist on things, an unconventional reading. This is an analysis in yesterday’s newspaper: http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/72637 It is interesting because it replaces the conflict where it should be, in its regional dimension. There are many other complementary reading around, and they are all in the more or less general line of thought.



But more locally, I’m worried about the repercussions. Somehow, I do not think there will be an open conflict, but we are slipping into a deeper, institutionalized division of the country and of government on the basis of geographic locations. And I think there will be an increase number of violent incidents, and there will be human losses with each event and this is terrible. I do not think the US will intervene openly and directly, but the fact that there has been $100 millions approved by the Bush government for covert operations in Lebanon and Syria and Iraq and Iran does not bode well. It looks to me like the US wants to engage more in Lebanon, as other regional players are already engaged. Whether it will do that directly or via third party is unclear, but I am almost sure that the Israelis will not be part of this engagement. They have too much on their hands right now.



I do not know how this issue of communication network and the security of the airport (you must have been following) will be resolved. But this is really the first open position of the Saniora government against the resistance (and HA). The bottom line is always going to be the following: as long as the physical safety of the resistance (HA) people cannot be ensured, it is not going to be possible to construct a government or a country. This is worsened by the fact that the security of HA is perceived as being synonymous to the safety of all the Shi’a of Lebanon. In my opinion, and regardless of the drumming and bravado of HA, we are not talking about the protection of the resistance any more, but about the protection of the resistants. But this does not fit with the regional plans of both big regional players.



Even more down to earth, the airport road is closed and there is an armed battle going on between Future and Amal in Ras el Nabeh as we speak. A foreign reporter just called to get info about food prices and she told me she was hearing explosions and gunshots in her street. She lives near Sodeco.



Not much else for the day."